Bayesian Decision Analysis I - Basics

Location – (Web PDC)

Instructions regarding how to log onto the web PDC and the conference call phone number, as well as handouts, will emailed to the registered participants at least twenty four hours prior to the web PDC.


Dr. Paul Hewett Ph.D. CIH

Course Description

This 2.5 hour webinar PDC consists of Part I of a two part introduction to Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA). BDA refers to the application of Bayesian statistical methods to IH “decision making”: i.e., the classification of exposures into exposure control categories, such as the AIHA exposure control categories, UK or ILO Control Banding categories, or pharmaceutical exposure control bands. (See the list of Prerequisites.)

Part I covers the following: basic methodology and calculations; assumptions, cautions and issues, and the use of the freeware program IHDataAnalyst-LiteEdition to analyze and interpret data using BDA.

The webinar will last 2.5 hours, with an additional 30 minutes for followup questions and clarifications. Each participant will receive an email confirming participation in the PDC.

Learning Objectives

  • Understanding of Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA) methodology.
  • Ability to use the freeware program IHDataAnalyst-LiteEdition to calculate the Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior decision charts.
  • Ability to quantify “professional judgment” using a Prior Decision Chart.
  • Understanding of how BDA and the decision charts can be used to make IH decisions.
  • Understanding of how BDA can be integrated into the AIHA or similar exposure assessment and management model.


  • Participation in the webinar PDC “IH Stats I – Basics” or a strong background in IH statistics.
  • Familiarity with the AIHA Exposure Assessment and Management Model (see the AIHA monograph “A Strategy for Assessing and Managing Occupational Exposures”, 3rd Edition (2006)
  • Working knowledge of the IHDataAnalyst (full or Student Edition).
  • Recommended reading prior to the WebPDC:
    • Hewett, P., Logan, P., Mulhuasen, J., Ramachandran, G., and Banerjee, S.: Rating Exposure Control Using Bayesian Decision Analysis. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health 3:568-581 (2006).
    • Chapter 21 in the AIHA monograph “A Strategy for Assessing and Managing Occupational Exposures”, 3rd Edition (2006).

Presentation List

  • AIHA Exposure Control Model
  • Baseline Exposure Simulator Workshop
  • Review of Assumptions, OEL Definitions, and Exposure Calculation Issues
  • Introduction to the IH Data Analyst – Lite Edition
  • Bayesian Calculations
  • Bayesian Decision Analysis + Workshop
  • Informative Priors, Parameter Space, and Workshop
  • Integrating BDA into the AIHA Model


$250 per participant

Cancellation Policy

A credit for an upcoming web PDC or a refund will be given for any cancellation made at least one business day prior to the day of the class. For example, if the web PDC is presented on a Saturday, the cancellation must be made by 6PM (1800) US Eastern time on the previous Thursday in order to qualify for a credit or refund. All refunds will be minus a $50 fee to recover credit card fees and administrative costs. No refunds or credits will be given if the notice of cancellation is not received within one business day of the web PDC.

Exposure Assessment Solutions, Inc. reserves the right to cancel the PDC at any time, in which case a full refund or credit will be given to each participant.

Read these notes before you sign up:

NOTE: The registration and participation policy for each Web PDC is the same as for a fixed location or on-site PDC. Each particpant must register. Registration is per participant, not per viewing site. Only those registered should view and particpant in this web PDC.

NOTE: The email address submitted at the time of payment will be used for all email communications and for logging onto the web PDC.

NOTE: This web PDC will presented using GoToMeeting. GoToMeeting must be installed on your computer. To install (usually takes less than two minutes), click on the GoToMeeting link above, scroll to the bottom of the page, and click on the link “Download GoToMeeting (for customers)”. If you do not have adminstrative privileges for your computer have your IT person install the GoToMeeting software well in advance of the web PDC.

NOTE: The conference call number will not be toll free. You will be responsible for any long distance phone charges if you do not have an unlimited long distance account. However, you may also connect using your computer speakers and microphone or headset (VoIP).

NOTE: See the “Prerequisites” below for software and freeware that will be helpful when taking this web PDC. To download and install the program(s) you must first be a registered member of